Groupon dodges the bullet – IPO a success?

No-groupon
For weeks now, all major finance portals have been full of articles on Groupon, how it has been losing out on market share to Living Social and other upcoming daily deals providers and how the investors are losing their sleep over the turn of events. The much awaited Groupon IPO was being delayed, and there were rumors that it may even be cancelled owing to the dismal performance by the daily deal pioneer. But amidst all speculations and negativities around Andrew Mason, the CEO of Groupon, he still managed to finally pull off the IPO that has been marked as the biggest the tech industry has ever seen since Google’s. So what does it mean for Groupon? And more importantly, what does it mean for the people who are buying in the stocks?

Well, first of all Groupon would be relieved to have dodged the bankruptcy with the sheer volume of cash the IPO has brought back home. If the results of the third quarter are to be looked at, Groupon owed $505-million to various parties, including the $463-million short-term obligations to the merchants for whom they had sold the coupons at half-prices. And to pay off these bills, Groupon had a meager $243-million cash at hand – less than half of the money it owes in the market. The IPO has brought back close to $700-million to the company, and the company is free to use these newly-acquired sudden resources the way it pleases them. It should be noted that Groupon, somehow, was able to price its IPO at $20 per share, above the 16-18 range.

The stock started trading at $20 per share, and in the initial frenzy it roze to a level of $31, which was lost as soon as it was gained. Since then, we are still waiting for the stock prices to get back to that level, and so are the poor bastards who bought the shares at $31. The way it seems, the chances of them making money in near future is as bright as India winning the Football World Cup. The shares are currently trading around $26 per share, but I don’t see people lining up to buy the shares anymore, and those who are already stuck in – they will be running wild to dispose theirs the first chance they get. The question is – how profitable, if at all, is that going to be?

Note: I think it is worth to be mentioned that we are talking about the same company that had seen a phenomenol rise when it was incepted in late 2008. Since its launch in Nov'08, Groupon's employee base increased to close to 400 in less than 20 months - the same time in which it rose from being a idea executed to a $1-billion plus valuation start-up. In the entire history of internet, such a phenomenol rise of a web-startup's valuation was second only to youtube's which took 1 quarter less to reach the $1-billion sweet spot. It was at this time when investors were all over Groupon and everyone wanted a slice of the pie for himself. In less than a year and half, the confidence as well as the acceleration crumbled; and when it did - well, it was not a very pretty sight. (Groupon started witnessing a serious fall in market share around July 2011, and losing most of it to up and coming competitor - LivingSocial) Such a magnificent rise, and an equally show-worthy fall - reminds you of anyone? (MySpace - are you listening?)